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A stockpile of 1,000 metric tons of uranium seized from a French-operated mine in Niger is now sitting at a military airbase in Niamey that was recently attacked by Islamic State militants, raising fresh concerns over security and the material’s uncertain future.
The uranium, which is processed yellowcake used to fuel nuclear reactors, has been offered for sale by Niger’s military government but remains unsold.
Its current storage site, adjacent to the capital’s main international airport, became the target of a surprise assault by ISIS fighters in late January. The militant group later claimed responsibility for the attack, which appeared aimed at drones stationed at the base.
The material was transferred from the SOMAÏR mine near Arlit late last year, despite a September ruling by the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ordering Niger “not to sell, transfer, or even facilitate the transfer to third parties of uranium produced by SOMAÏR” held in violation of Orano’s rights.
The junta that seized power in 2023 has framed control of the uranium as a matter of sovereignty. Colonel Ousmane Abarchi, Niger’s mining minister, has made clear the country intends to monetize the stockpile.
“We can sell to whoever we want,” Abarchi said as reported by the Financial Times, adding that Niger would only deal with buyers it considered responsible. “We are talking with the Russians. We are talking to the Chinese. We are talking to the Americans,” he added.
The uranium, estimated to be worth about US$240 million, was removed from the SOMAÏR mine, historically operated by French nuclear group Orano. The move followed months of escalating tensions between Niger’s junta and Paris.
The company has warned it is prepared to initiate “any and all actions” necessary, including “against third parties,” if the material is sold.
Russia is widely viewed as the most plausible candidate. Niger has deepened ties with Moscow since expelling French forces, and a small Russian military contingent is present in the country.
However, a person close to Niger’s leadership suggested that overt alignment with Moscow carries risks.
“If there was a clear American opportunity, they would jump at it,” the source said in the same FT report. “The last thing that you want to do is sell to the Russians on the dark market.”
Even if Niger secures a buyer, exporting the uranium presents another challenge. With its border with Benin largely closed since 2023, Niger has been forced to rely on a route through Burkina Faso and Togo.
Niger once supplied up to a quarter of the natural uranium used in European nuclear power plants. Since the coup, the junta has repositioned itself away from France and toward new alliances, framing control of mineral resources as an assertion of independence.
Spot uranium prices briefly surpassed US$100 per pound in late January, as nuclear demand projections continue to underscore a supply deficit. Spot prices have since pulled back slightly to the US$89 per pound range, still a historically high level.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

The US Department of Commerce has sharply increased trade penalties on Chinese graphite anode materials, concluding that producers in China engaged in unfair pricing and subsidy practices that harmed the US market.
In a final determination issued February 11, 2026, Commerce raised countervailing duties on Chinese natural graphite anode material to 66.68 percent and maintained anti-dumping duties at 93.5 percent.
Combined with existing tariffs, the total effective rate on imports of Chinese natural graphite anode material now stands at approximately 220 percent as determined by Westwater Resources (NYSE:WWR) in a separate release.
The ruling remains subject to a final affirmative injury determination by the US International Trade Commission, expected in March 2026. If the ITC affirms injury, the duties will remain in place for a minimum of five years under US trade law.
Westwater Resources, a US-based battery-grade natural graphite developer, said the final determination confirms that Chinese producers violated anti-dumping rules.
The company estimates the cumulative tariff burden now includes a 10 percent duty under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 25 percent Section 301 tariffs, 25 percent Section 232 tariffs, 66.68 percent countervailing duties and 93.5 percent anti-dumping duties, totaling roughly 220.18 percent.
The final ruling marks a significant escalation from the preliminary findings issued in 2025.
At that time, Commerce imposed countervailing duties of 11.58 percent and anti-dumping duties of 93.5 percent. The anti-dumping rate remains unchanged, but the countervailing duty component was substantially increased in the final decision.
The investigation also traces back to a petition filed in December 2024 by American Active Anode Material Producers (AAAMP), a coalition representing North American graphite producers.
The group sought tariffs as high as 920 percent, arguing that Chinese state subsidies and artificially low pricing were undermining efforts to build a domestic graphite anode industry.
Active anode materials covered by the investigation include natural and synthetic graphite, as well as graphite contained within finished lithium-ion batteries. Graphite is the largest component in the anode of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, typically consisting of a blend of natural and synthetic materials.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) has previously reported that the US does not mine natural graphite and relies entirely on imports to meet its requirements. In 2024, all domestic graphite demand was met through foreign supply.
Westwater said the expanded trade measures could shift demand toward US-produced natural graphite anode materials, particularly across lithium-ion battery markets such as electric vehicles, energy storage and defense applications.
The company is developing the Kellyton graphite processing plant in Alabama and controls the Coosa Graphite Deposit, described as the largest and most advanced natural flake graphite deposit in the contiguous United States.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Ormat Technologies (NYSE:ORA) confirmed it has signed a long-term agreement to supply up to 150 megawatts of geothermal power to support Google’s data center operations in Nevada.
The Reno-based renewable energy company announced Tuesday (February 17) that it entered into a portfolio power purchase agreement (PPA) with NV Energy, the Berkshire Hathaway-owned utility serving Nevada.
The electricity will ultimately support Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc.’s Google under NV Energy’s Clean Transition Tariff (CTT) framework.
Under the terms of the deal, Ormat will develop a series of new geothermal projects across Nevada capable of delivering up to 150 MW of capacity. The projects are expected to come online between 2028 and 2030.
The contract term will begin once the first project achieves commercial operation and will extend 15 years beyond the commercial operation date of the final project, creating a long-duration revenue stream.
The structure allows projects to be added to the portfolio as they reach commercial operation, giving Ormat flexibility in staging development while providing Google with a scalable source of clean, around-the-clock electricity.
“AI is fundamentally increasing electricity demand across the technology sector, and geothermal power is uniquely positioned to deliver the reliable, carbon-free power required to support that growth,” said Ormat CEO Doron Blachar. “This portfolio PPA provides long-term profitable revenue growth and clear visibility into our portfolio development plans, while solidifying our conviction in the expanded exploration and drilling activities we have undertaken over the past several years that laid the groundwork for securing this significant agreement and others like it.”
Blachar added that the agreement, combined with the extension of geothermal tax credits under the OBBBA framework, strengthens Ormat’s ability to execute its long-term growth strategy.
“The momentum of the Clean Transition Tariff through this agreement with NV Energy, Google and Ormat demonstrates a proven, scalable model for large customers to partner with utilities and technology providers to bring new clean capacity to the grid,” said Briana Kobor, Google’s Head of Energy Market Innovation.
The Clean Transition Tariff enables large energy users to procure new clean generation while covering the full costs of their electric service, a structure designed to prevent cost shifts to other customers.
Ormat said the framework could be replicated in other US electricity markets.
The announcement was well received by investors. Ormat shares rose as much as 8.1 percent intraday, marking the company’s largest single-day gain since 2023.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) has published its financial results for the half-year ended December 31, 2025.
The mining giant said its copper operations, which span multiple continents, accounted for the largest share of its overall earnings for the first time, coming in at 51 percent of underlying EBITDA.
In 2026, BHP has boosted its copper output guidance to between 1.9 million and 2 million metric tons (MT).
Looking at the company's Australian operations, Copper South Australia delivered a 2 percent production increase for the half-year period, valued at 148,000 metric tons (MT). BHP said it is expecting Copper South Australia to deliver over 500,000 MT of copper per year in the first phase, and up to 650,000 MT in the second phase.
“We expect the first phase growth projects at our mines and concentrators to be at competitive capital intensities of (US$16,000 to US$21,000 per MT copper equivalent," the company noted.
At Olympic Dam, which is also located in South Australia, BHP reported that the Southern Mining Area decline is advancing, with the box cut now complete and lateral development underway.
Once finished, the work is expected to provide up to 2.5 million MT per year of additional vertical capacity, creating flexibility for future mine expansion once completed in 2028.
BHP said in October that it would be investing more than AU$840 million in Olympic Dam in order to keep building out its copper presence in South Australia, with the focus being on the decline as well as other areas.
South Australia's copper exports reached AU$3.1 billion in 2025, up 16 percent from the previous year, with the state being home to 70 percent of the country’s economic copper reserves.
BHP remains the world’s largest copper producer, with its key asset being a 57.5 percent share in the joint venture Escondida mine with companies Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and Japan's JECO.
Rio owns 30 percent, while JECO holds the remaining 12.5 percent. Located in the Atacama Desert in Northern Chile, Escondida has two pits that feed three concentrator plants, alongside oxide and sulfide leaching operations.
The mine created revenue amounting to US$7,924 million for BHP for the half year. Production-wise, it kept its momentum from the previous period and delivered 646,000 MT of copper.
Together with the Pampa Norte asset in Chile, BHP said it hopes that Escondida will enable production of approximately 1.4 million MT per year of copper through the 2030s.
“We continue to prosecute our strategy of operational excellence, distinctive social value creation and growth in copper and potash,” said BHP CEO Mike Henry in the company's half-year release.
“We have achieved ~30 percent growth in copper production in the last four years, positioning us ahead of the strengthening copper market that we had anticipated.”
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Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Silverco Mining (TSXV:SICO) is a production-stage silver company targeting opportunities in Mexico’s Sierra Madre Occidental belt. Its primary technical focus is optimizing the wholly owned Cusi Mining Complex in Chihuahua, an 11,665-hectare district-scale property. The site benefits from established, institutional-quality infrastructure—such as direct access to the national power grid and paved roads—significantly lowering the capital requirements for restarting operations.
The company is undertaking a definitive transition toward mid-tier producer status through a binding agreement to acquire Nuevo Silver. This deal gives Silverco control of the La Negra mine in Querétaro, a currently producing asset that delivers immediate top-line revenue. By pairing the near-term restart of the Cusi 1,200 tpd mill with ongoing production at La Negra, Silverco is effectively bypassing the multi-year development cycle typically faced by junior miners.

This “buy-and-build” strategy is driven by a technical team with specialized expertise in Mexican epithermal vein systems and complex underground mine engineering, positioning the company to accelerate growth while maintaining operational discipline.
This Silverco Mining profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*
Click here to connect with Silverco Mining (TSXV:SICO) to receive an Investor Presentation
Martingale Expert Advisors (EAs) are automated trading bots that increase position size after a losing trade, aiming to recover losses when the market eventually reverses. In forex and CFD trading, this approach is commonly used because it can produce frequent winning cycles, especially during ranging market conditions. On MetaTrader (MT4/MT5), many traders rely on grid-based Martingale strategies where counter trades are opened at predefined pip or point intervals. At 4xPip, we regularly work with traders and EA owners who request custom Martingale logic, including adjustable lot multipliers, grid steps, and centralized take profit models designed to close grouped trades together.
Drawdown is the key risk metric that determines whether a Martingale strategy survives or fails. It measures the peak-to-trough equity decline and reflects how much capital is at risk during extended adverse market moves. While Martingale EAs can appear stable and profitable in the short term, their structural design exposes accounts to compounding drawdown when trends persist longer than expected. In this article, we break down these hidden risks clearly, showing why proper Martingale settings for MT4, capital planning, and risk limits matter, and how traders working with 4xPip can better understand the long-term impact of Martingale behavior on account survival rather than just short-term gains.

The core Martingale principle is simple: when a trade goes into loss, the next position opens with an increased lot size to recover the previous drawdown once price retraces. In automated trading, this logic is attractive because a single favorable move can close an entire basket of trades in profit. At 4xPip, we implement this concept through grid trading, where counter trades open at predefined steps (pips or points) against the running order. Using controlled Martingale orders and a centralized take profit, the EA is designed to close grouped positions together, which explains why traders often search for optimized or Best Martingale settings for MT4 to balance recovery speed with capital exposure.
Inside an Expert Advisor, this logic is executed through order stacking and lot size multiplication. After the initial trade, each new Martingale order increases the lot size using a multiplier or increment, while grid spacing defines when the next position opens. Our 4xPip Martingale EAs automate this process on MetaTrader by adjusting lot size, recalculating the centralized take profit, and managing multiple open trades as a single profit target. This structure often produces very high win rates because most trade cycles eventually close in profit. However, the risk remains embedded in the growing position size during extended market moves, which is why understanding how these mechanics work is important before relying on headline performance metrics alone.
Drawdown represents the decline in account equity from its peak and is one of the most important risk metrics in automated trading. Floating drawdown refers to unrealized losses from open positions, while realized drawdown reflects losses that are already closed and booked into balance. In Martingale-based systems, floating drawdown is especially important because multiple counter trades remain open simultaneously. At 4xPip, our Martingale Strategy Grid EA openly displays running trades and live profit on the chart, allowing traders and EA owners to see how grid spacing, lot multiplier, and Martingale orders directly influence floating drawdown on MetaTrader.
High drawdown impacts more than just numbers, it directly affects margin usage, equity stability, and decision-making under pressure. As drawdown increases, free margin shrinks, limiting the EA’s ability to open recovery trades and increasing the risk of stop-out. This is why profit alone is a misleading metric when evaluating EAs. A system can show a high win rate and still expose the account to unacceptable risk. When configuring Best Martingale settings for MT4 with 4xPip, we emphasize drawdown control through parameters like max Martingale trades, stopout percentage, and centralized take profit, because sustainable performance is defined by controlled risk, not short-term gains.
One of the most overlooked dangers of Martingale strategies is exponential position sizing during losing streaks. Even with what appears to be a modest lot multiplier, each new Martingale order increases exposure rapidly as losses extend. For example, a sequence like 0.1 → 0.2 → 0.4 → 0.8 grows faster than most traders anticipate, especially when multiple grid trades remain open. At 4xPip, we see this risk clearly when traders configure Martingale orders, steps, and lot multiplier without fully accounting for how quickly position size escalates across consecutive counter trades on MetaTrader.
This rapid growth means only a few adverse price movements can consume a large portion of account equity and margin. Floating drawdown expands as each new trade opens, reducing free margin and increasing stop-out risk long before the centralized take profit is reached. Backtests often underestimate this exposure because historical data rarely captures extreme volatility, prolonged trends, or news-driven price expansion. When optimizing Best Martingale settings for MT5, we emphasize forward-thinking risk controls, such as max Martingale trades and stopout percentage, because real-market conditions can push exponential sizing far beyond what historical simulations suggest.
Strong directional trends, high-impact news events, and volatility spikes are the primary conditions where Martingale drawdown risk becomes visible. In these environments, price does not retrace within normal grid spacing, causing Martingale orders to stack rapidly as counter trades trigger at each defined step. Even with adjustable parameters like Martingale Orders, steps, and lot multiplier, sustained momentum can push floating drawdown higher before the centralized take profit has a chance to realign. This is where understanding Best Martingale settings for MT4 becomes important. At 4xPip, we account for these conditions by allowing EA owners and customers to control max Martingale trades, stopout percentage, and grid distance directly on MetaTrader, ensuring exposure remains measurable rather than uncontrolled.
Ranging markets, on the other hand, favor Martingale EAs because price oscillation allows recovery trades to close as a group in profit, often reinforcing a false sense of safety. This comfort disappears during breakouts or trend continuations, where recovery mechanisms fail to catch reversals and drawdown accelerates quickly. Common scenarios include post-news expansions, session overlaps, or volatility after consolidation, where centralized take profit keeps adjusting but equity pressure intensifies. Our MT4 Martingale trading EA displays running trades, total profit, and EA direction on the chart, making these risk phases visible in real time. From a 4xPip perspective, this transparency helps traders evaluate when Martingale strategy behavior aligns with market structure, and when risk controls must take priority over recovery expectations.
As Martingale orders increase in size, margin requirements rise proportionally because each new position consumes more free margin on MetaTrader. With a lot multiplier applied before every counter trade, exposure grows faster than equity, especially when grid spacing is tight. Even though our Martingale trading EA includes lot size management, Martingale Orders limits, and adjustable steps, margin pressure becomes unavoidable if trade size escalates during extended adverse movement. From a 4xPip standpoint, this is why configuring Best Martingale settings for MT4 starts with conservative initial lot size and realistic max trades, margin is a hard constraint that no recovery mechanism can bypass.
Leverage amplifies this risk during drawdowns by allowing larger positions with less capital, but it also accelerates margin calls and forced liquidation when equity drops. Accounts are often wiped out not because price never reverses, but because margin exhaustion closes trades before recovery occurs. Centralized take profit may still be positioned to close the basket in profit, yet insufficient free margin prevents the EA from sustaining open positions. Our EA displays running trades, profit, and exposure directly on the chart, helping traders and EA owners see margin stress in real time. At 4xPip, we treat margin control as a structural risk factor, not a setting, one that must be managed alongside Martingale distance, stopout percentage, and leverage to avoid irreversible account failure.
Stop-losses are often avoided in Martingale systems because the core strategy depends on recovery rather than loss acceptance. Fixed stop-loss levels can prematurely close positions that are designed to be offset by counter trades and centralized take profit. In practice, this makes traditional stop-loss logic ineffective once multiple Martingale orders are active. At 4xPip, our MT4 Martingale trading EA instead relies on parameters such as Martingale Orders, steps, lot multiplier, and auto adjustment of SL TP to manage exposure within the grid. However, even with these controls, risk is redistributed rather than eliminated, which is why selecting Best Martingale settings for MT4 requires understanding how recovery mechanisms behave during prolonged adverse movement.
Equity protection features and max-trade caps also have clear limitations. A stopout percentage or max Martingale trades setting can halt further exposure, but it cannot reverse existing floating drawdown once margin pressure builds. When max trades are reached, price may still move against open positions, and equity protection simply locks in losses instead of enabling recovery. From a 4xPip perspective, Martingale EAs should be evaluated on how transparently they expose risk, such as displaying running trades, profit, and EA direction on the chart, rather than on smooth profit curves alone. Realistic expectations, adequate capital, and disciplined risk controls matter more than backtested returns, because Martingale performance is ultimately defined by how loss scenarios are handled, not how profits accumulate during favorable conditions.
Martingale Expert Advisors are widely used in forex and CFD trading because they can generate frequent winning cycles by increasing position size after losses. However, this same recovery-driven structure introduces significant drawdown risks that are often underestimated. As positions stack through grid-based Martingale logic, exposure grows rapidly during extended trends, placing pressure on equity, margin, and overall account stability. While these systems can appear profitable in short-term results, their long-term survival depends on how well drawdown, margin usage, and adverse market conditions are managed.
This article explains how Martingale EAs function on MT4 and MT5, why drawdown is the most critical performance metric, and which hidden risks can lead to account failure. From exponential position sizing to margin exhaustion and risk management limitations, it highlights why traders must look beyond win rates and profit curves. With practical insights drawn from real-world EA development at 4xPip, the focus remains on transparency, realistic expectations, and configuring Martingale strategies with controlled risk rather than relying on recovery assumptions alone.
4xPip Email Address: services@4xpip.com
4xPip Telegram: https://t.me/pip_4x
4xPip Whatsapp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=18382131588
The post Hidden Risks of Martingale Expert Advisors and How They Impact Drawdown appeared first on 4xpip.
Free Forex trading bots for MT4 and MT5 are automated Expert Advisors designed to execute trades based on predefined rules, often distributed at no cost through forums, marketplaces, or developer sites. Many MetaTrader users are drawn to these bots because they promise hands-free trading, faster execution, and rule-based discipline without upfront investment. In practice, these free tools usually represent generic strategies with limited customization, which is why traders frequently test them on MT4 or MT5 before considering any real capital exposure. From our experience at 4xPip, traders often start with free bots to understand automation basics before moving toward strategy-specific solutions.
This raises the core question: are free Forex trading bots MT4 MT5 actually suitable for live accounts, or are they better confined to testing and educational use? In this article, we examine their real-world performance, risk exposure, technical constraints, and operational limitations. We also look at how professional automation, where a trader, EA owner, or EA seller converts a defined strategy into a controlled Expert Advisor, differs from running unverified free bots on live accounts, setting clear expectations for informed decision-making rather than marketing claims.

Most free trading bots operate on predefined rules coded into an Expert Advisor, usually combining basic indicators, simple price action triggers, or time-based execution logic. These bots follow fixed instructions such as moving average crossovers, RSI thresholds, or session-based entries without understanding broader market context. From our work at 4xPip, we often see traders use these free bots as a starting point to observe how a strategy behaves when automated, but the logic is typically generic and not aligned with a trader’s specific risk model or execution requirements.
There is also a clear technical distinction between Expert Advisors built for MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5. MT4 EAs are written in MQL4 and follow a simpler execution model, while MT5 EAs use MQL5, which supports advanced order handling, faster execution, and multi-asset trading. Free bots usually target one platform only and offer limited flexibility, with fixed settings and minimal adaptability to changing market conditions. In contrast, when a trader, EA owner, or EA seller works with 4xPip, our programmers develop bots based on defined strategy logic, platform-specific behavior, and controlled parameters, highlighting the practical limits of relying on free tools for serious live trading.
One of the main reasons traders gravitate toward Forex bots for MT4 and MT5 is accessibility. With zero upfront cost and simple installation on MetaTrader platforms, beginners can attach an Expert Advisor to a chart and observe automated execution within minutes. This low barrier to entry makes free bots appealing for traders who want to experiment with automation before defining a clear strategy. At 4xPip, we regularly see traders start this way to understand how a bot interacts with price data, orders, and basic risk parameters inside MT4 or MT5.
Free bots are also commonly used to explore automated trading concepts without financial commitment. Many traders rely on eye-catching backtest reports or marketing claims showing high historical returns, even though these results often come from optimized or curve-fitted data. From a professional automation perspective, this is where limitations become clear. When a trader, EA owner, or EA seller works with us, our programmers build bots from explicit strategy rules, real execution logic, and controlled testing conditions, highlighting the difference between experimenting with free tools and running a strategy-driven Expert Advisor on a live account.
A major limitation of free trading bots becomes visible once they move from backtests or demo accounts to live trading. Historical results often ignore real execution factors such as variable spreads, slippage, order rejections, and broker-specific execution rules. In live market conditions, these variables directly affect entry price, stop-loss placement, and overall risk exposure. At 4xPip, we treat these execution realities as core design inputs when automating a strategy, because ignoring them leads to misleading performance expectations.
Market conditions also evolve, and most free bots rely on fixed strategy logic that cannot adapt to changing volatility, liquidity, or structural shifts. Without access to the source code (mq4/mq5 file), traders cannot refine logic or adjust filters as conditions change. Free bots are rarely updated or optimized over time, which increases drawdown risk on live accounts. In contrast, when a trader, EA owner, or EA seller works with 4xPip, our programmers develop Expert Advisors with controlled parameters, ongoing refinements, and platform-specific behavior, highlighting why static free bots often struggle outside controlled test environments.
Risk management is one of the weakest areas in many free Forex bots for MT4 and MT5, especially when applied to live accounts. These bots often use basic or overly aggressive risk settings, such as fixed lot sizes or percentage risks that do not scale properly with account equity. Without alignment to a trader’s actual risk tolerance, even a simple losing streak can escalate drawdowns quickly. At 4xPip, we see this issue frequently when traders move from testing free bots to real capital and realize the risk model does not match live account conditions.
A deeper concern is the widespread use of Martingale, Grid, or high lot-sizing strategies in free bots, often without clear disclosure or protective controls. While these approaches can look profitable in backtests, they expose accounts to compounding risk during extended adverse market moves. Most free bots also lack built-in safeguards such as drawdown limits, equity protection, or trade suspension logic. In contrast, when a trader, EA owner, or EA seller defines a strategy with 4xPip, our programmers can integrate drawdown limiters and risk rules, highlighting why unmanaged free bots pose serious account safety concerns on MT4 and MT5.
When running free trading bots for MT4 and MT5 on live accounts, technical execution risks often surface quickly. Differences in broker infrastructure, spread models, execution speed, and server location can significantly alter how an Expert Advisor behaves in real time. Latency and VPS dependency also play an important role, especially for strategies sensitive to entry timing. At 4xPip, we account for these operational variables during development, as a strategy that works in one environment can fail entirely under different broker or VPS conditions.
Code quality is another common concern with free bots. Many are written with inefficient logic, poor error handling, or hidden restrictions that limit functionality once deployed on live accounts. Without access to the source code (mq4/mq5 file), traders cannot audit or refine how the bot executes trades. Free bots also typically come with minimal documentation and no support, making troubleshooting difficult when issues arise. In contrast, when a trader, EA owner, or EA seller collaborates with 4xPip, our programmers deliver documented, transparent code and operational clarity, underscoring the operational gaps present in most free solutions.
Free Forex trading bots can be useful in limited, controlled scenarios. We see value when traders, EA owners, or EA sellers use them for basic strategy observation, learning EA behavior inside MetaTrader (MT4/MT5), or understanding how automated execution responds to spreads, order types, and session changes. In this context, free bots act as learning tools, not production systems. At 4xPip, many customers first explore automation using simple bots before approaching us to convert a manual strategy into an Expert Advisor built with defined logic, filters, and risk rules by our programmers.
Relying on free bots for consistent live trading profits is generally unrealistic because most are not aligned with a trader’s specific strategy, risk tolerance, or broker conditions. Without access to the source code (mq4/mq5 file), meaningful evaluation and refinement are not possible. We recommend assessing any bot by analyzing its strategy logic, risk model, drawdown behavior, and execution consistency on demo or small test accounts before live deployment. This evaluation process is the same framework we apply at 4xPip when developing custom bots, where every EA is built around a clearly defined strategy, tested logic, and controlled execution rather than assumptions or generic performance claims.
Free Forex trading bots for MT4 and MT5 are automated tools designed to execute trades based on predefined rules, often offered at no cost through forums or marketplaces. While they attract traders due to zero upfront cost, ease of setup, and promise of hands-free trading, these bots usually employ generic strategies with limited adaptability. They are most useful for learning automation, observing strategy behavior, or testing in demo accounts. However, relying on them for live trading carries significant risks, including inconsistent performance, lack of proper risk management, and operational limitations related to broker execution, latency, and code quality. Professional Expert Advisors, like those developed by 4xPip, are built around defined strategy logic, controlled risk parameters, and platform-specific optimization, offering a more reliable approach for live trading. Ultimately, free bots are suitable for experimentation and learning, but careful evaluation and strategy-specific development are essential for live account deployment.
4xPip Email Address: services@4xpip.com
4xPip Telegram: https://t.me/pip_4x
4xPip Whatsapp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=18382131588
The post Are Free Forex Trading Bots for MT4 and MT5 Worth Running on Live Accounts? appeared first on 4xpip.
Expert Advisors (EAs) are high-value intellectual property for any trader, EA owner, or EA seller operating in the MetaTrader ecosystem. An EA represents strategy logic, execution rules, and market behavior analysis that often take months or years to develop. In real-world distribution, EA sellers only provide the Ex4 file (setup file) to customers, not the Mq4 source code, yet unauthorized copying and redistribution remain common. Once a customer shares an EA externally, it can spread freely online, removing all control from the EA owner and directly impacting revenue, strategy integrity, and long-term viability.
From our perspective as developers, EA licensing is not a legal checkbox, it is a technical access-control mechanism. A proper EA licensing system determines who can run an EA, on which MetaTrader account number, and for how long. At 4xPip, we approach licensing as a practical implementation layer built directly into the EA, supported by a cloud-based web portal that enforces account binding, expiry control, and subscription validation. This guide focuses strictly on implementation-level licensing practices for MetaTrader developers and EA sellers, drawing from how we design and integrate licensing systems that prevent unauthorized EA usage without relying on assumptions or manual enforcement.

EA piracy usually starts after an EA seller provides the Ex4 file (setup file) to a customer. Once distributed, that file can be shared with other traders, uploaded to forums, or bundled into cracked versions without any restriction. Another common misuse scenario is unauthorized account usage, where one customer runs the same EA on multiple MetaTrader account numbers beyond what was agreed. Without control mechanisms, an EA quickly becomes available free of cost on the internet, making it impossible for the EA owner to differentiate between a legitimate customer and an unauthorized user.
From our experience at 4xPip as programmers and developers, the root cause is the absence of a licensing system. An unrestricted Ex4 file operates on any account number and for an unlimited time period, which removes all access control from the EA owner. Over time, this directly impacts revenue, as subscriptions are bypassed, and also damages reputation when outdated or modified copies circulate under the original EA name. This is why our licensing approach focuses on binding EA usage to a specific MetaTrader account number and a defined expiry period, ensuring the EA owner, not the customer, controls who can use the EA and for how long.
At the execution level, a secure EA must validate authorization before it is allowed to place trades. In an MT4 EA licensing system, this starts when the customer inserts a license key (for example, eLRQ3bHn2ty7yiDSA4hp7YOoTeGXpRHVai7tq0QQpTs) into the EA inputs during installation. At 4xPip, we integrate licensing logic directly into the EA so it connects with a web portal and verifies the subscription status in real time. If the license is valid, the EA runs; if not, trade execution is blocked. This ensures that an Ex4 file alone is never enough to operate the EA without proper authorization.
Access control also depends on binding licenses to unique identifiers. Our system ties each subscription to a specific MetaTrader account number, which is fetched and saved into the database automatically on first activation. This prevents the same license from being reused on unauthorized accounts. License expiry and activation limits are enforced through the admin portal, where the EA owner controls how long the EA operates and on how many accounts a single license key can be used. When a subscription expires or is revoked, the EA stops functioning and displays remaining expiry days on the chart, keeping both the EA owner and customer aligned under a controlled, transparent licensing framework.
Local license checks rely on hardcoded conditions or file-based validation inside the EA itself. In these setups, the Ex4 file operates independently once installed, with no external verification. From our experience as developers at 4xPip, this approach offers very limited protection because static logic can be bypassed, copied, or reused across multiple MetaTrader account numbers. Offline licensing models also cannot enforce expiry dates reliably or prevent customers from redistributing the EA, which directly conflicts with the EA owner’s need to control who can use the EA and for how long.
A server-based approach, which we implement in our MT4 EA licensing system, shifts authorization to a centralized web portal / server / cloud controlled by the EA owner. Each subscription is validated against the server using a unique license key, and the account number is fetched and saved into the database automatically. This allows real-time control over expiry, account limits, and revocation without modifying the Ex4 file. By managing customers, licenses, and expiry dates from the admin portal, EA owners maintain continuous oversight while ensuring that unauthorized users cannot operate the EA, even if the file itself is shared.
Binding an EA license to a specific MetaTrader account number is one of the most effective ways to prevent unauthorized reuse. In 4xPip’s licensing system, the customer inserts the license key only once during installation, after which the account number is fetched and saved into the database automatically. This ensures that even if the Ex4 file is shared, the EA will not operate on any other account. By enforcing account-level binding, the EA owner retains full control over which customer can use the EA and eliminates uncontrolled redistribution.
Beyond account numbers, environment-level restrictions add another layer of control. While the core enforcement in our system is account-based, EA owners can also align licensing rules with practical conditions such as account usage limits and defined expiry periods. The admin portal allows the EA owner to balance strict security with operational flexibility, charging differently for multiple accounts or longer usage periods while avoiding unnecessary friction for legitimate customers. This approach keeps licensing enforcement precise, transparent, and aligned with real trading workflows rather than rigid or impractical constraints.
Effective license management starts with controlled issuance and clear tracking. In our Expert Advisor licensing system, a subscription is created when a customer purchases an EA, and a unique license key is generated through the web portal. The EA owner manages customers, account numbers, and expiry dates from a centralized admin portal, allowing updates when a customer legitimately changes accounts. Since the account number is fetched and saved into the database automatically, access changes are enforced without redistributing the Ex4 file, keeping license control consistent and auditable.
License validation also plays a direct role in updates and monitoring. Because the EA communicates with the server, execution and update access remain tied to an active subscription. Expired or revoked licenses stop functioning and clearly display remaining expiry days on the chart. Usage visibility through the portal, such as active and expired customers, helps EA owners detect abnormal patterns like repeated activation attempts or misuse across accounts. This centralized oversight allows early identification of suspicious behavior while maintaining a smooth experience for legitimate users operating under valid licenses.
One of the most common mistakes we see is relying solely on Ex4 or Ex5 file protection and basic obfuscation. While these measures hide source logic, they do not stop an EA from running on unlimited MetaTrader account numbers once distributed. Another frequent error is treating licensing as an afterthought, added only after piracy becomes a problem. Without a licensing system, the EA owner loses control the moment the setup file is shared, allowing customers to redistribute the EA freely and bypass subscription limits.
From our development experience at 4xPip, licensing must be planned early in the EA lifecycle and integrated at the core execution level. Combining account-based access control, expiry enforcement, and server validation creates a technical foundation that supports clear documentation and usage terms. When license rules are transparent, such as how many accounts a subscription allows and how long it remains active, support requests decrease and disputes are minimized. A licensing framework aligns development, customer support, and long-term EA distribution under one controlled system rather than relying on assumptions or manual enforcement.
Secure EA licensing is an important technical requirement for MetaTrader developers who want to protect their trading strategies, revenue, and long-term product integrity. Because Expert Advisors are distributed as Ex4 files without source code, they are inherently vulnerable to unauthorized sharing, multi-account misuse, and uncontrolled redistribution. A practical licensing system goes beyond legal terms and acts as an access-control layer inside the EA itself. By combining license keys, account-number binding, expiry enforcement, and server-based validation through a centralized portal, developers can ensure that only authorized users can run an EA, for a defined period and on approved accounts. When implemented early and correctly, this approach minimizes piracy, maintains transparency for customers, and gives EA owners continuous control over usage without relying on manual monitoring or assumptions.
4xPip Email Address: services@4xpip.com
4xPip Telegram: https://t.me/pip_4x
4xPip Whatsapp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=18382131588
The post A Practical Guide to Secure EA Licensing for MetaTrader Developers appeared first on 4xpip.
Proprietary trading algorithms are high-value intellectual property. They reflect strategy logic, risk models, execution rules, and market behavior insights that take significant time and capital to develop. In real-world trading, these algorithms are frequent targets for reverse engineering, unauthorized redistribution, and resale, especially when EA owners distribute only an Ex4 setup file without enforcing strict access control. Once copied or leaked, an EA can spread freely online, directly damaging both strategy exclusivity and revenue.
Algorithm theft can occur across multiple environments, including MT4/MT5 Expert Advisors, cloud-based trading bots, and API-driven systems where weak access control or poor license enforcement exists. As developers of an EA licensing system, we see these risks daily. In this article, we outline practical, proven security techniques used at the code, server, and operational levels to control who can use an EA, on which MetaTrader account number, and for how long, focusing on real mechanisms that prevent unauthorized use rather than theoretical protection.
Trading algorithms are commonly copied through multiple technical and behavioral methods. In MT4 and MT5 environments, attackers attempt to decompile Ex4 setup files, analyze trade execution timing, or infer logic by observing order placement, stop-loss behavior, and position sizing over time. In API-driven and cloud-based strategies, monitoring API calls, request frequency, and execution responses can gradually expose strategy rules. From our experience, simply hiding source code is not enough to protect a trading bot from copying once it is actively running on a live account.
Beyond file-level attacks, strategy logic is often extracted through account mirroring, signal scraping, and long-term order-flow analysis. By copying trades across multiple accounts, competitors can statistically reconstruct entry filters and risk logic. This is why fully preventing copying is extremely difficult in real-market conditions. Instead, layered security is required, combining controlled EA execution on specific MetaTrader account numbers, time-based expiry, and server-side license validation. This approach, which we implement in our EA licensing system, focuses on limiting unauthorized usage and redistribution rather than relying on a single defensive measure.
Code obfuscation is a foundational step to protect a trading bot from copying by making algorithm logic difficult to read, modify, or reverse engineer. Techniques such as renaming variables, flattening control flow, and masking logical conditions increase the effort required to understand strategy behavior, even if someone attempts analysis at runtime. At 4xPip, we treat obfuscation as a defensive layer that slows down reverse engineering but does not replace access control, especially once an EA is deployed on a live MetaTrader account.
Using compiled formats like Ex4 and Ex5 binaries further limits direct access to source logic, since EA sellers only distribute the Ex4 setup file and never the Mq4 source code. Best practices include removing debug symbols, avoiding verbose logs, and applying control-flow obfuscation to reduce pattern recognition. When combined with our MT4 EA licensing system, where EA execution is restricted to specific MetaTrader account numbers and time-based expiry, compilation and obfuscation work as part of a layered approach to protect trading bots from getting copied or redistributed.
License management is one of the most effective ways to protect a trading bot from copying or unauthorized redistribution. Using a license key allows us to bind EA execution to a specific MetaTrader account number and enforce strict usage rules. In our MT4 EA licensing system, a subscription or license is formed when a customer purchases an EA, and the EA can only operate on the approved account numbers defined by the EA owner. This prevents customers from sharing the Ex4 setup file with others, as the EA will not function without valid authorization.
Authentication is handled through server-side checks performed via the web portal, where the EA owner manages customers, subscriptions, expiry dates, and account numbers. When a customer installs the EA and inserts the license key for the first time, the account number is fetched and saved into the database automatically, removing manual effort and reducing errors. Expiration-based licenses further limit long-term exposure by ensuring the EA stops operating after a defined time period, with remaining expiry days displayed directly on the chart. This layered control model, implemented through our licensing infrastructure, significantly reduces the risk of trading bots getting copied while giving EA sellers full control over access and duration.
In client-side execution, the full trading logic runs inside the EA on the customer’s MetaTrader terminal, which exposes the strategy to behavioral analysis and long-term reverse engineering. Server-side execution shifts logic to a controlled environment on the server or cloud, where only validated signals or execution instructions reach the client. From our perspective at 4xPip, combining server-side logic with a licensing system is an effective way to protect a trading bot from copying, since customers never receive access to the complete strategy flow or decision-making rules.
By keeping core logic on the server, access is enforced through authentication checks tied to license keys, MetaTrader account numbers, and active subscriptions managed via the web portal. This approach significantly reduces the risk of code analysis or redistribution, but it introduces trade-offs. Server-side models require reliable infrastructure, increase operational cost, and can add latency if not designed carefully. When implemented correctly, server validation and controlled execution provide a practical balance between performance and security, especially for EA owners focused on long-term protection rather than one-time distribution.
Masking trade logic is an effective technique to protect a trading bot from copying by reducing the visibility of clear entry and exit patterns. Instead of exposing full decision logic in one place, partial calculations and conditional checks can be distributed across multiple execution paths, making it harder to infer the underlying strategy from trade history alone. At 4xPip, we view logic masking as a complementary layer to our EA licensing system, where the EA seller already controls who can execute the EA and on which MetaTrader account number.
Execution randomization further complicates statistical reverse engineering without harming performance when applied within defined rules. Techniques such as slight variation in order timing, controlled randomness in lot sizing, or adaptive execution sequencing prevent competitors from identifying fixed behavioral patterns over time. When combined with license-based access control, expiry enforcement, and account binding managed through our web portal, these methods help EA owners reduce long-term exposure while maintaining consistent trading behavior for authorized customers.
Continuous monitoring is essential to protect a trading bot from copying or misuse after deployment. Usage logs, license validation checks, and anomaly detection help identify suspicious behavior, such as an EA attempting to run on unauthorized MetaTrader account numbers or beyond an approved time period. Through the 4xPip web portal, EA owners can review total customers, active customers, and expired customers, allowing quick action when irregular usage patterns appear.
Security is not a one-time implementation. As MetaTrader platforms, trading environments, and attack methods evolve, licensing and validation mechanisms must be maintained and updated. 4xPip’s EA licensing system supports ongoing control through expiry-based subscriptions, account binding, and server-side verification. Technical safeguards are most effective when combined with clear licensing agreements and terms of use, reinforcing both operational control and legal ownership for EA sellers who want long-term protection.
Protecting proprietary trading algorithms is very important for EA developers and strategy owners, as these systems represent significant intellectual and financial investment. In live trading environments, algorithms are vulnerable to copying through decompilation attempts, behavioral analysis, account mirroring, and weak license enforcement across MT4/MT5, cloud-based bots, and API-driven systems. Because complete prevention is unrealistic, effective protection relies on layered security. This includes code obfuscation, compiled binaries, strict license management tied to MetaTrader account numbers, time-based expiry, server-side validation, and ongoing monitoring. When combined thoughtfully, these techniques limit unauthorized use, reduce redistribution risk, and give EA owners long-term control without exposing core strategy logic.
4xPip Email Address: services@4xpip.com
4xPip Telegram: https://t.me/pip_4x
4xPip Whatsapp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=18382131588
The post Top Security Techniques to Stop Competitors From Copying Your Trading Algorithms appeared first on 4xpip.
Martingale Expert Advisors (EAs) are automated trading bots that apply the martingale phenomenon by increasing position size after a losing trade in an attempt to recover losses. In Forex trading, these bots are commonly deployed on MetaTrader (MT4/MT5) and operate using predefined strategies that rely on lot multipliers, grid steps, and centralized take profit logic. At 4xPip, we work closely with traders, EA owners, and EA sellers who request custom martingale-based bots, giving us first-hand exposure to how these systems behave under real market conditions, not just in theory, but in live execution.
The appeal of martingale strategies lies in their recovery-based logic and short-term profit potential, especially when configured with optimized inputs such as grid spacing, lot size management, and centralized take profit. Many traders search for the Best Martingale settings believing correct parameters alone can eliminate risk. This article takes an objective approach: we explain why martingale EAs can appear highly profitable while carrying structural risk beneath the surface. Drawing from how we design, customize, and test martingale strategies at 4xPip, our goal is to help traders make informed decisions based on mechanics, exposure, and risk reality, not assumptions.

The core martingale principle in Forex trading is simple: when a trade goes into loss, the next position opens with an increased lot size to recover previous drawdown once price retraces. In practice, this means losses are not accepted individually but managed as a group. At 4xPip, we implement this logic through martingale orders, where each counter trade is opened at a defined distance (steps) in pips or points, and lot size increases using a configurable lot multiplier or lot increment. This is the foundation behind what many traders search for as the Best Martingale settings, but the mechanics always remain the same—loss recovery through controlled position scaling.
Inside an Expert Advisor, this process is fully automated. The bot executes buy and sell orders on MetaTrader (MT4/MT5), increases lot size before each new martingale order, and manages exits using a centralized take profit that dynamically adjusts based on the collective position of all open trades. At 4xPip, our programmers code this logic so trades are grouped and closed together in profit, even if individual positions close in loss. These EAs are typically deployed in ranging or low-volatility market conditions, where price oscillation allows grid spacing and recovery mechanisms to function as intended. This is why martingale strategies, while technically precise, depend heavily on market structure and correct configuration rather than blind automation.
In a martingale strategy, capital exposure grows exponentially as position size increases after each losing trade. Every new Martingale order opens with a larger lot size based on the configured lot multiplier or lot increment, which means margin usage rises rapidly even if price moves only a limited distance against the initial position. At 4xPip, we design martingale bots with adjustable parameters such as Martingale distance, max martingale trades, and stopout percentage because without controlled inputs, even a short adverse move can stack multiple large positions and push exposure far beyond the original risk plan, regardless of how well the Best Martingale settings appear on paper.
Extended losing streaks amplify this risk. When price trends strongly in one direction, the EA continues opening counter trades until margin is exhausted or a stopout threshold is reached. This is where drawdown becomes imporant. Small accounts are disproportionately affected because limited balance restricts how many martingale orders can be sustained before margin calls occur. At 4xPip, we frequently see that traders running Martingale EAs on low-capital accounts experience faster drawdowns, even with conservative settings, while larger accounts can absorb deeper grids before recovery logic has a chance to function. This imbalance highlights why capital size and risk tolerance must align with martingale scaling mechanics.
Strong trends and high-volatility phases are structurally challenging for martingale systems because price does not retrace within expected grid levels. When a market enters a directional move, each new Martingale Order opens at increasing lot sizes while price continues moving against the initial position. From our experience, this behavior directly stresses Lotsize Management, Lot Multiplier, and Martingale distance parameters. Even when using the Best Martingale settings for MetaTrader, grid-based recovery becomes less effective in trending conditions because centralized take profit keeps shifting while exposure grows faster than recovery potential.
Sudden price movements accelerate loss accumulation by rapidly triggering multiple counter trades within seconds. News releases, high-impact economic events, and breakout-driven volatility often cause prices to skip predefined steps (grid spacing), forcing the EA to stack trades aggressively. At 4xPip, when programmers design or customize a Martingale EA for traders or EA owners, we account for these scenarios by allowing controls such as Max martingale trades, stopout percentage, and time filter. Common failure points include news spikes, range-to-trend transitions, and false breakouts where recovery logic cannot stabilize before margin pressure increases, making volatility management an important factor in martingale strategy deployment.
Leverage magnifies both profit potential and risk in martingale systems because every new Martingale Order increases position size through the lot multiplier or lot increment. At 4xPip, when we design or customize a Bot for a Trader or EA owner, we account for how leverage directly impacts Lotsize Management and margin usage inside MetaTrader (MT4/MT5). Higher leverage allows more grid levels to open, but it also accelerates drawdown when price moves against the Strategy. Even with the Best Martingale settings for MT4, leverage does not reduce risk, it only changes how quickly margin is consumed during adverse market movement.
Margin requirements and broker stop-out rules define the real operational limits of any martingale EA. As multiple counter trades open, used margin increases until a margin call or forced liquidation occurs, often before the centralized takeprofit can recover losses. From our work at 4xPip, broker-imposed constraints such as maximum lot size, minimum stop-out percentage, execution speed, and order limits directly affect how a martingale grid performs in live conditions. These constraints must be aligned with Max martingale trades, stopout percentage, and grid spacing, otherwise the EA may fail not due to logic flaws, but because broker rules prevent the recovery mechanism from completing its trade cycle.
Short-term backtests often present martingale strategies as consistently profitable because historical price action frequently provides enough retracements for the centralized takeprofit to close trade baskets in profit. We see this regularly when Traders or EA owners rely on brief MT4 strategy tester results without accounting for extended adverse moves. Backtests may not expose deep drawdowns caused by prolonged trends, especially when Martingale Orders, lot multiplier, and grid steps are optimized only for recent data. Even the Best Martingale settings for MT4 can appear flawless in limited samples while masking long-term capital risk.
Historical data quality and modeling assumptions further distort results. MT4 backtests cannot fully replicate real execution factors such as slippage, variable spreads, or broker stop-out behavior, and curve fitting parameters like Martingale distance or Max martingale trades often over-adapt to past conditions. From our development work at 4xPip’s Martingale EA, we emphasize forward testing on demo or small live accounts and stress testing across ranging, trending, and high-volatility markets. This approach validates whether the Strategy, recovery mechanism, and risk controls remain stable beyond idealized historical scenarios and under real trading constraints.
Effective risk control is non-negotiable when running a martingale-based Strategy. At 4xPip, we structure Bots with practical safeguards such as Max martingale trades, controlled lot multiplier or lot increment, defined Martingale distance, and a configurable stopout percentage to cap downside exposure. These inputs work alongside Lotsize Management and centralized takeprofit logic to prevent uncontrolled trade stacking inside MetaTrader (MT4/MT5). Even when applying the Best Martingale settings for MT4, risk must be constrained at the system level, not left to market behavior or assumptions of recovery.
Account sizing plays a decisive role in whether a martingale EA remains operational during stress periods. In our opinion, Martingale Bots are unsuitable for underfunded accounts or capital that cannot tolerate deep drawdowns, even temporarily. We advise Traders and EA owners to isolate capital specifically allocated for high-risk strategies and avoid deploying martingale logic where emotional or financial tolerance is low. Martingale EAs are also inappropriate in conditions where prolonged trends dominate or where strict broker limits restrict recovery cycles. Understanding personal risk tolerance is very important, because no recovery mechanism can compensate for misaligned expectations or insufficient capital discipline.
Martingale Expert Advisors (EAs) are automated trading systems that increase position size after a loss to recover drawdowns, commonly deployed in Forex through MetaTrader 4 and 5. While their short-term profit potential and recovery-based logic attract traders, these systems carry inherent risks due to capital exposure, drawdowns, and sensitivity to market volatility. Factors such as leverage, broker constraints, and trending conditions can quickly overwhelm the EA, even when configured with optimal settings. Backtesting often exaggerates profitability, masking real-world risks. At 4xPip, we design and customize martingale EAs with safeguards, including lot management, centralized take profit, and configurable stopout limits, emphasizing practical risk controls, forward testing, and account-specific capital allocation to ensure more informed and disciplined trading decisions.
4xPip Email Address: services@4xpip.com
4xPip Telegram: https://t.me/pip_4x
4xPip Whatsapp: https://api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=18382131588
The post Understanding the Risks of Martingale Expert Advisors in Forex Trading appeared first on 4xpip.
I enjoy watching the Super Bowl as much for the commercials as I do the game. And I know I’m not alone.
Sure, the game might deliver more excitement in the moment. But the ads tell you something about where business and culture are heading.
After all, a 30-second ad at this year’s Super Bowl cost between $8 and $10 million. You don’t spend that kind of money unless you’re trying to cement your place in the mainstream and signal that you’re building something big.
This year, that meant a wave of AI ads. Startups and tech giants alike were pitching automation, copilots and digital assistants as the new norm. The AI theme was unmistakable, even though not every spot hit the mark.
But do you know what I didn’t see during this year’s Super Bowl?
There wasn’t a single ad for prediction markets.
And that wasn’t an accident. The NFL banned advertising from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for the entire 2025 season, despite these platforms growing fast and attracting billions in funding and mainstream attention.
In fact, the NFL specifically kept these platforms out of the Super Bowl broadcast, putting them in the same prohibited category as tobacco and firearms.
The league says it’s concerned with integrity. League officials argue that these markets lack the safeguards of regulated sports betting, including protections against manipulation and strict data rules.
And maybe for good reason.
Because prediction markets — especially when combined with AI — are becoming something much more powerful than a novelty bet on the future.
They’re becoming engines of collective intelligence.
Prediction markets work on a simple idea.
Instead of asking experts to guess what happens next, you let thousands of participants trade contracts tied to outcomes. Prices move based on conviction and money on the line. Over time, the market aggregates information, incentives and sentiment.
This isn’t just a theoretical approach.
One analysis of Polymarket data found the platform was about 90% accurate in forecasting outcomes a month ahead of events and up to 94% accurate shortly before they occurred.
And we saw that dynamic play out in 2024.
During the presidential election cycle, more than $3.3 billion flowed through Polymarket contracts tied to the race, with industry estimates putting total market activity closer to $3.7 billion.
And as all that money moved, the market odds started to differ from what polls were showing.
As the election got closer, markets priced Donald Trump’s chances as much higher than Harris. Yet, many surveys at the time framed the race as essentially even.

Large traders leaned into those signals. One participant alone placed positions with potential payouts near $46 million, as probabilities shifted toward roughly 62% versus 38%.
Down the ballot, the same thing was happening. Candidates favored by market pricing went on to win about 89% of competitive Senate races.
Researchers studying the election noted how probabilities evolved in real time across months of trading activity, highlighting a responsiveness traditional polling structures struggle to match.
But when you add artificial intelligence into the mix, the dynamic evolves even further.
Researchers studying conversational AI-assisted forecasting found that groups collaborating through AI mediation predicted Major League Baseball outcomes with 78% accuracy, beating Vegas betting markets that landed at 57%.

Source: unanimous.ai
Again, this advantage didn’t come from AI predicting alone. It came from using AI to structure debate and sharpen human judgment.
And we’re seeing similar results elsewhere.
One study showed that when human forecasters had access to advanced language model assistants, their prediction accuracy improved between 24% and 28%.
Yet, fully automated models trying to predict financial markets still struggle. Many approaches barely break past the mid-50% accuracy range, and even advanced hybrid systems only push accuracy toward about 60%.
The pattern here is pretty clear.
AI isn’t perfect at forecasting, and neither are we. Machines miss context, while humans bring their own biases.
But when you put them together, accuracy improves. And that’s starting to have real-world consequences.
Prediction markets take a wide range of opinions and turn them into prices that reflect probability. AI then digs into that data, finds structure and highlights signals that people wouldn’t see on their own.
Once those signals exist, they can influence decisions across investing, operations, risk management and many other areas.
So I can see why the NFL is uneasy about polymarkets. These platforms don’t just surface information quickly. They reflect public sentiment in real time, and that can shape behavior.
For a league built on competitive integrity, that’s a risk it can’t afford to ignore.
Prediction markets proved that crowds can outperform experts. AI is now proving that when these crowds are structured and sharpened by machines, they can do even better.
And it’s hard to ignore where this is heading.
Intelligence is changing. We’re moving toward a world where people and machines think alongside each other in real time.
Forecasting is simply the first place we see it happening today. But I don’t believe this hybrid intelligence will stay confined to prediction markets.
Wherever important decisions depend on probabilities and incentives, combining human networks with machine intelligence could improve the outcome. I’m talking about things like capital allocation, supply chains, political strategy and corporate planning.
Which means prediction markets could eventually evolve into infrastructure for decision-making itself.
And when that happens, we might look back at today’s polymarkets debates the same way we look at early arguments about online trading.
The moment before adoption became a foregone conclusion.
Regards,

Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
Editor’s Note: We’d love to hear from you!
If you want to share your thoughts or suggestions about the Daily Disruptor, or if there are any specific topics you’d like us to cover, just send an email to dailydisruptor@banyanhill.com.
Don’t worry, we won’t reveal your full name in the event we publish a response. So feel free to comment away!
We perfected it.
The best trading strategy in the stock market right now.
Almost every day last week, we saw stocks that followed this pattern. And this week, it’s the only setup you need to pay attention to.
Forget combing through CNN and CNBC articles about what the Magnificent 7 are up to.
Those stocks are too expensive and move too slowly. They don’t offer enough opportunity for small accounts.
Instead, my students and I target stocks that run +50% in a matter of hours.
That’s our window of opportunity.
And with a recurring trade pattern, we can limit our risk while pulling gains that rival an entire year’s investment in the SPY.
Plus, you don’t need to quit your job to watch the market all day long. As I mentioned, these moves only take a couple of hours.
Ladies and gentlemen…
This is the perfect trade pattern for side hustlers.
I talk a lot about the importance of premarket and after-hours setups.
• The momentum is cleaner because of the absence of heavy intraday trading volume.
• There aren’t volatility halts to break up a perfectly good chart.
• And it’s when the best catalysts are announced.
But recently, I’ve noticed a leader between the two time frames.
During premarket hours, we find a lot of the best runners of the day because that’s when most of the news is announced.
But there are two major issues with premarket trading.
First, it’s early in the morning.
I’m on the other side of the world right now. And due to the time difference, premarket hours are more attractive than they would be if I was in the U.S.
A lot of my students have a difficult time waking up early. And I completely understand.
Second, brokers open at different times in the morning.
That means a would-be spiker during premarket might not run because there isn’t enough volume in the market yet. Not enough brokers are open and trading.
Or maybe a stock is ready to spike, but a random bearish order directly when a broker opens causes the chart to fail.
The sudden increase of volume throughout premarket hours acts similarly to volatility halts that break up a perfectly good price chart.
As a result, I’m encouraging all of my students to watch the market close at 4 p.m. ET and after-hours momentum.
There are still news announcements during after hours, like earnings updates, and it’s later in the day, so you don’t have to cut into your sleep schedule.
Plus, all the brokers are open. Everyone who wants to trade during after-hours already has access.
I’ve got five examples from last week, and this is just the tip of the iceberg.
On February 9, Quince Therapeutics Inc. (QNCX) spiked 75% into after-hours alongside news of an engagement with LifeSci Capital to explore alternatives that maximize shareholder value.
The price spiked another 88% during after hours on February 10.
These were back-to-back moves on the same stock during the hottest time to trade in the market.

Source: StocksToTrade
QNCX chart multi-day, 1-minute candles.
On February 11 during after hours, Fastly Inc. (FSLY) spiked 34% with the announcement of record fourth quarter and full year financial results.
The price continued much higher over the next two days.

Source: StocksToTrade
FSLY chart multi-day, 1-minute candles.
On February 12, Haoxin Holdings Limited (HXHX) spiked 70% into after-hours, continuing the momentum it built intraday.
The stock didn’t announce any news. But it has a history of running in December 2025, and the float is only 2.3 million shares.
Those factors, plus the intraday momentum, was enough to make it a solid trade setup.

Source: StocksToTrade
HXHX chart intraday, 1-minute candles.
Also on February 12, Corsair Gaming Inc. (CRSR) spiked 47% into after-hours with a bullish earnings announcement.
Similar to the other earnings-announcement spike, FSLY, the price pushed higher into the next day.
Some of these after-hours spikes turn into terrific multi-day moves.
After trading the first run, make sure to set alerts at key levels and keep it on your watchlist.

Source: StocksToTrade
CRSR chart intraday, 1-minute candles.
I just showed you five setups from ONE week.
• 75%
• 88%
• 34%
• 70%
• 47%
Of course, past performance does not indicate future results. But, these are real gains in the market.
You don’t need to wake up at 6 a.m. for premarket hours. You don’t need to stare at charts during your 9-to-5.
You just need to open your computer at 4 p.m. ET when the market closes and after-hours trading begins.
That’s our window.
Make sure your charts show after-hours price action.
It’s when all the brokers are open, the volume is strong but not out of control, and we still see news catalysts to propel the stock higher.
This after-hours pattern is working RIGHT NOW. I see it almost every day.
You can keep holding the SPY, and hope for 10% this year, or you can spend a few hours after work today hunting for huge stock spikes that can actually flip your account … you know, within this lifetime.
Build your watchlist from intraday strength. Keep an eye on the news.
And when 4 p.m. hits, make sure you’re ready.
If you have any questions, email me at SykesDaily@BanyanHill.com.
Cheers,

Tim Sykes
Editor, Tim Sykes Daily
There was a collective sigh of relief the first few years of ChatGPT…
Users described it as a glorified autocomplete. Businesses found that most AI implementations still needed an employee to hold its hand.
But that was three years ago. And in the tech sector, things happen fast.
Earlier this February, the CEO of Hyperwrite dropped an essay on Twitter that’s now been viewed over 40 million times.
Here’s his message: AI can do all of his technical work now. With almost no oversight. He walks away from his computer for four hours and comes back to find the job done. And he says it’s “done well.”
“We’re not making predictions. We’re telling you what already occurred in our own jobs, and warning you that you’re next.”
Jobs that don’t involve physical labor are most at risk.
Anthropic’s CEO predicts AI could wipe out up to 50% of white-collar, entry-level jobs within one to five years.
Which means these next few years are crucial … starting RIGHT NOW.
Don’t wait for AI to come knocking at your place of work. Get ahead of the trend and diversify your stream of income.
The stock market is full of opportunities. And everyone else already seems to be climbing on board…
In January 2026, U.S. equity markets shattered monthly records with over $1 trillion in shares traded daily. Volume for the month jumped 50% year-over-year.
While AI threatens to automate desk work, the market is exponentially rewarding those who capitalize on one-sided volatility.
Take control of your financial future.
It’s not necessarily about getting rich, this is about stability. Some of my millionaire students still trade as a side hustle to supplement their day jobs.
We’re insulating ourselves from a changing job market and reaping the resulting gains.
The AI panic isn’t coming. It’s already here.
Ford’s CEO just announced AI will “replace literally half of all white-collar workers.”
Microsoft’s data shows 5 million white-collar jobs facing extinction, including management analysts, customer service reps, sales engineers, etc.
Salesforce’s CEO claims AI is already doing 50% of the company’s workload.
The real issue is the kind of job that’s disappearing. We’re talking about entry-level work that helps employees move up the ladder.
Without these crucial ladder rungs, there’s no way to climb.
Workers are effectively shut out of higher-paying jobs because they can’t find employment that gives them the entry-level skills.
And thus, we’ve entered an era of side hustles.
Everyone’s trying to make an extra buck as inflation pressure persists, and prospects in the labor market shrink.
Turn to the stock market. Trading activity is booming right now.
For example:
Zero-day options are exploding in popularity. SPX 0DTE averaged roughly 2.3 million contracts a day in 2025 and made up about 59% of that product’s volume.
At the same time, U.S. ETFs pulled in a record $1.4 trillion during 2025. It marked the second straight year that ETF inflows topped $1 trillion, following $1.1 trillion in 2024.
Across the market, trading activity is up.
And that means more opportunity for traders who know how to recognize key setups.
You don’t need fifty tactics.
You just need a simple playbook to use on the hottest stocks every day. And the discipline to stick to it.
I start before the bell. The biggest stock spikes of the day usually begin during premarket hours.
I always scan for the top percent gainers that have fresh catalysts: Earnings, contracts, filings, trial updates, etc.
If it’s a former runner, even better. Past spikers can spike again.
Then I look for one of my patterns in the price action:
• Breakouts.
• Dip buys.
• Panic price action.
• Dip and rips.
These patterns repeat in the market because people are predictable during times of high stress.
I’ve used the same patterns to trade for over two decades. And with all the volatility in the market, the same spikes are growing even bigger.
With AI compressing white-collar jobs and liquidity surging through the market, there’s no better time to build a skill at trading.
Insulate your income. Only trade the best setups. Stay disciplined. The upside takes care of itself.
If you have any questions, email me at SykesDaily@BanyanHill.com.
Cheers,

Tim Sykes
Editor, Tim Sykes Daily
Depending on where you’re from, today might be celebrated under different names.
While most of us now refer to the third Monday in February as Presidents’ Day, officially, it’s still a celebration of George Washington’s Birthday.
Go figure.
Back in 1879, an Act of Congress made Washington’s Birthday a holiday for federal offices in Washington. The holiday expanded to include all federal offices in 1885.
Until 1971, Washington’s Birthday was celebrated on February 22 — his birthday — each year.
In 1971, Congress got involved again and passed a law making most federal holidays occur on a Monday. At the same time, they moved the celebration of Washington’s Birthday to the 3rd Monday in February.
Which means, if you do the math, it never occurs on Washington’s actual birthday anymore. Sorry, George.
In the U.S., Presidents’ Day is an official stock and bond market holiday.
Other markets around the world are open as usual. Also, forex markets and foreign futures markets are open, but trading is thin because the banks are closed and brokers take the day off.
Not the best time to trade those markets. But there is something you could do today.
“Every expert was once a beginner.”
— Rutherford B. Hayes, 19th President of the United States
My opinion on how to spend stock market holidays…
… study, study, study.
And this isn’t just about trading — it applies to anything in life you want to do well.
Back in high school, I became obsessed with winning and training hard as a tennis player.
I practiced like crazy, but lost in the finals of the Class L State High School Tennis Championships as a junior — in a third-set tiebreaker, no less!
I was determined to win it all the next year. I was on a mission.
Truth be told, I overtrained because I ended up with an injury requiring surgery. That was the end of my tennis career.
But what I hope you understand from my story is that if you really want something, you put in the effort.
Notice I didn’t guarantee your success.
I can’t guarantee you’ll become a successful trader. But I can tell you that I will continue to teach you what you need to know in Tim Sykes Daily. It’s your job to put in the effort.
I can’t remember the exact statistic, but something like three-quarters of stocks follow the overall market trend on any given day.
If the markets are up, then most stocks are up. And vice versa.
So what happens in the stock market around Presidents’ Day? First, let’s take a look at holiday trading in general.
Trading the Three Days Before and After Holidays
According to the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” in the past, stock indexes tended to rise before a holiday and fall in post-holiday sell-offs.
But in recent years, each holiday has taken on its own character — so the old idea of buying into the holiday doesn’t necessarily pay off.
Presidents’ Day Is the Least Bullish of Holidays
Also from the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”: Presidents’ Day is the least bullish of the formal holidays.
Their statistics cover the day before and the three days after the holiday. On average, the four major indexes (S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq, Russell 2K) have been down on the last day of trading before President’s Day between 1980 and 2017.
And on the days following Presidents’ Day? On average, all four major indexes have been down the three trading days after Presidents’ Day over the same period.
Post Presidents’ Day Stock Market Projections
Did you notice I didn’t say the four indexes were down every year? That’s important.
This isn’t an exact science. If it were that easy, we could all take most of the year off. Then we could short-sell index funds on those days and make a killing.
But what does all this mean for you as a trader? To be clear, it might not mean anything. But it’s good to know the history and seasonal cycles of the markets.
“But, why?” you ask…
Because for every block of shares you buy, someone is selling. And for every block of shares you sell, someone is buying.
The more you know about the markets — and market psychology — the better. Be smarter than the next trader.
At the very least, be more knowledgeable. Develop the right trading psychology.
So what should you be doing today?
Instead of taking the day off completely, why not put in a long day of study? Prepare for the rest of the week.
“Nothing can stop the man with the right mental attitude from achieving his goal; nothing on earth can help the man with the wrong mental attitude.”
— Thomas Jefferson, 3rd President of the United States
I don’t care what day of the year it is. Or whether you trade the U.S. markets or foreign markets.
It doesn’t matter if you trade penny stocks or options. It doesn’t matter what you trade. You need to go in with a strategy.
If you can’t clearly define your trading strategy … and explain it in simple terms to someone who asks … then you better step back and study some more. No degenerate gambler BS. Don’t trade blindly.
Know your strategy and follow it.
I look for several criteria, but almost always start with these …
First, I look for the biggest percent gainers for the day. At the end of the trading day or during pre-market hours, depending on where I am in the world, I screen for those stocks.
Then I look to see how the stock has traded in the past and whether there is a news catalyst driving the price movement.
Then I do some research to see what the news is and try to form an idea about whether the stock should be on my watchlist.
I also look for volatility and volume.
I look at float — the number of shares available to trade — to determine how that might affect supply and demand should the stock keep moving.
Which leads me to my next point about what you should be doing on Presidents’ Day …
Every trade you make — every single one — should start with a plan. Especially if you have less than a decade of experience. But even after that, you should still use them for every trade.
Why? Because trading plans are incredibly useful.
I often get asked what should be included in a trading plan.
I hope you’ve figured out that your watchlist, in many ways, represents your trading plan. At least it’s the start of your plan.
The watchlist is kind of like saying, “Here are the opportunities available to me.” Then, you start to go deeper and decide what you would do with each of those opportunities.
This is one of the reasons you don’t need a massive watchlist. Ten stocks are plenty, and maybe even too many at first.
So while everyone else is taking Presidents’ Day off, put together a watchlist and create a trading plan.
If you have zero ideas about finding stocks to watch at this point, re-read this article because I’ve given a lot of tips. So far, I’ve mentioned this…
• Know your strategy.
• Make a trading plan.
• Have a watchlist.
That’s all preparation. It’s what we do to try and protect ourselves and get ahead.
The way to prepare?
Study. Study like crazy. Study like it’s the most important thing you can do.
Does this mean you should never take time off to rest? No. You need rest.
But build the habit of studying and a strong work ethic. Then, when you rest, it will be with a peace of mind rather than a false hope for change.
No matter what …
Never. Stop. Learning.
Life is an incredible journey if you have the right attitude and keep soaking up knowledge.
Presidents’ Day is an official stock market holiday. Which makes it a great day for you to study.
Figure out what you want to learn, make a plan to study, and execute your plan.
Set some goals — say, what you want to learn in the next 12 months. Then break it down into 90-day chunks. Then monthly and weekly goals. Then get to work!
Finally, a little tough love from the nation’s 26th President …
“If you could kick the person in the pants responsible for most of your trouble, you wouldn’t sit for a month.”
— Theodore Roosevelt, 26th President of the United States
Are you a trader? How will you apply the ideas I shared today? What do you do every day to prepare for trading? Let me know at SykesDaily@BanyanHill.com.
Cheers,

Tim Sykes
Editor, Tim Sykes Daily
I had a great time connecting with folks during yesterday’s Emergency Crypto Winter Summit.

We talked through what’s shaping today’s crypto market, which still sits near a $2 trillion valuation and has far more infrastructure and participation than in earlier cycles.
If you joined us, you also heard me talk about how large financial firms continue to invest in digital assets, tokenization and market infrastructure even while bitcoin has fallen back toward levels last seen in 2024.
That tells you serious money is still being committed to this space, despite crypto sentiment souring recently.
This week gave us a clear real-world example of that gap between short-term mood and long-term strategy.
Because crypto investors were pulling back while the world’s largest asset manager was wiring traditional assets into DeFi rails.
BlackRock, which manages more than $12.5 trillion in assets, said this week that its tokenized Treasury fund known as BUIDL can now trade through infrastructure tied to Uniswap.
BUIDL is basically a digital version of a conservative bond fund that was launched in 2024 and is now valued at roughly $2 billion. It holds short-term U.S. government debt and cash, and investors earn income from those holdings the same way they would in a traditional fixed-income product.
The difference is how ownership is tracked.
Instead of shares sitting inside brokerage accounts and clearing networks, investors hold blockchain tokens that represent their stake. These tokens can now be bought and sold using decentralized trading systems rather than relying entirely on traditional middlemen.
Because Uniswap isn’t a stock exchange.

It’s software that runs on a blockchain.
Uniswap allows assets to trade through shared pools of capital supplied by participants. When someone wants to buy or sell, those pools provide the other side of the trade. The software sets prices and completes transactions automatically, and people who supply capital earn a portion of the trading fees.
This is what keeps activity flowing.
But access to this setup isn’t open to the public. Only large, approved investors can trade BUIDL this way. Professional trading firms commit capital on both sides of the market so transactions can happen without big price swings.
And it’s worth remembering that bitcoin still sits at the center of this ecosystem. It remains the primary benchmark asset and institutional entry point into the space.
That’s why I said yesterday that short-term volatility doesn’t change bitcoin’s structural role in the market.
So why did BlackRock make this move now?
It has nothing to do with retail crypto speculation. Instead, it’s a test of whether blockchain systems can handle real financial assets at scale.
In other words, it’s a test of the plumbing that keeps markets running.
Traditional trades move through middlemen and can take days to settle. But blockchain systems handle matching and ownership directly with software, which can drastically speed things up.
Think about sending money overseas 20 years ago compared with how instant digital payments work today. That’s the type of efficiency experiment underway here.
Roughly $100 billion already sits in DeFi liquidity pools, and large institutions are exploring whether those systems can improve how traditional assets trade and settle.
BlackRock isn’t migrating markets yet.

The company is simply testing whether some of the core functions behind traditional markets can run on these newer blockchain rails.
But the timing lines up perfectly with what I wrote about on Wednesday and what I talked about yesterday.
Major infrastructure advances in crypto rarely coincide with peak enthusiasm. They tend to happen during rough patches like this, when most people are focused on falling prices.
After the 2018 crash, decentralized lending began gaining traction.
After the 2020 shock, tools for institutional custody expanded.
And following the 2022 downturn, tokenization efforts accelerated.
During all of those downturns, development kept moving forward even as the mood turned negative. That’s because retail investors often react to volatility, while institutions tend to look further ahead
That doesn’t mean the big money ignores price swings. But institutional investors also weigh where the market might be heading.
A recent Coinbase survey highlights this divide. Even after bitcoin fell from above $125,000 in October 2025 to around $90,000 by year-end, roughly 70% of institutional investors still viewed it as undervalued, compared to about 60% of non-institutional investors who agreed.
That helps explain what’s happening right now. Many investors are reacting to volatility, but financial institutions are focused on where the technology is headed over the long run.
Short-term price swings don’t change that trajectory.
While media coverage has focused on fears of potential “crypto winter,” the world’s largest asset manager was busy testing blockchain trading systems.
BlackRock’s latest move reinforces something I keep coming back to…
Market sentiment and capital don’t always move together.
Even though crypto sentiment has soured recently, major financial firms continue to invest in blockchain infrastructure. That tells me the technology is being evaluated as a long-term tool, not a short-term trade.
I’ve seen this same dynamic play out across previous cycles. It has been consistent enough that I factor it into how I read the market.
And there’s another pattern that tends to form when fear peaks. I’ve seen it three times in my career, and each time it led to some of my biggest gains.
That same setup is forming again today.
I walked through it during yesterday’s live briefing, and I also talked about three tiny coins I’ve identified with the potential for 1,000% gains once bitcoin takes off again.
If you weren’t able to make it yesterday, I have good news.
We’ve posted a limited rebroadcast online.
Before this exciting moment passes by.
Regards,

Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
Editor’s Note: We’d love to hear from you!
If you want to share your thoughts or suggestions about the Daily Disruptor, or if there are any specific topics you’d like us to cover, just send an email to dailydisruptor@banyanhill.com.
Don’t worry, we won’t reveal your full name in the event we publish a response. So feel free to comment away!
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